Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for Michigan

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for Michigan in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for Michigan in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 87.7% for Michigan for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.848) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (0.03).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.5579 7.26%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.5408 -1.67%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.1489 -2.30%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0490 -0.38%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0232 -1.39%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.0488 0.40%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0197 -0.46%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.5296 4.56%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0071 -0.09%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0277 0.14%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0389 -0.46%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.4827 -6.07%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.2718 -3.32%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0219 0.21%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0561 -0.43%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.0844 1.45%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0168 -0.24%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.3580 7.03%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.1029 1.30%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.0306 -0.56%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0319 0.92%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.0166 -0.05%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.2584 -2.44%
Low Income 0.0081 0.7601 0.62%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0180 -0.10%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.1318 2.04%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.6525 12.33%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.1961 0.31%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.0615 -0.09%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0200 0.28%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.0000 0.00%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0005 0.02%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.2430 -1.20%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0205 -0.04%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.0112 0.05%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.0000 0.00%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 181.0000 -3.31%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0082 1.75%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0397 3.42%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.1449 2.75%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0139 -7.41%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0473 -23.01%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1517 56.99%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2289 18.85%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.1030 -9.19%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0323 14.64%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0400 8.87%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0406 2.77%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $6,598 for Michigan for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 42646) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-36048).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.5723 -$1,626
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.5457 -$470
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.1451 -$456
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0461 -$244
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0186 -$113
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.0473 $11
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0195 -$86
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.5255 -$1,222
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0074 -$47
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0277 -$75
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0398 $278
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.4810 $174
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.2733 $226
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0235 -$31
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0585 $330
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.0868 $352
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0167 $142
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.3807 $367
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.1083 $392
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.0258 -$25
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0317 -$43
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.0154 -$68
Single Parent 145.7630 0.2635 $38
Low Income -332.4067 0.7469 -$248
Homeless -446.4262 0.0156 -$7
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.1185 $239
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0000 $0
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.6906 $558
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 4272.0300 $1,560
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.1835 $369
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.0633 $43
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0189 -$49
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.0000 $0
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0004 $5
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.2377 $26
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0172 -$102
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0100 $8
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.0000 $0
Median Days in Program 3.2489 181.0000 $588
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0082 $198
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0397 $1,285
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.1449 $5,686
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0139 -$670
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0473 $193
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1517 $14,675
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2289 $12,853
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.1030 $5,942
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0323 $348
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0400 $1,588
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0406 -$248

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 33.3% for Michigan for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 7.362) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-7.029).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.5854 -21.16%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.5477 28.58%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.1263 -0.89%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0293 -2.92%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0212 6.18%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.0549 -7.93%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0254 5.41%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.4863 -27.58%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0223 1.90%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0371 7.33%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.4813 -5.86%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.2946 -5.43%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0223 0.16%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.0609 -5.20%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.0701 -1.41%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0181 3.32%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.4251 15.50%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.1745 -5.31%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.0360 -0.94%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0316 0.79%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0327 2.88%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.2655 5.67%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.0892 6.96%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.6753 -0.08%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.1860 1.21%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0094 0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0286 1.41%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0080 -0.23%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.0000 0.00%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 272.0000 9.65%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 146.0000 -3.56%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.1870 -0.16%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0082 8.24%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0397 35.49%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.1449 175.68%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0139 -60.94%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0473 150.02%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1517 114.91%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2289 227.22%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.1030 26.59%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0323 106.28%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0400 -0.57%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0406 -55.05%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 92.4% for Michigan for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.807) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.731).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.4863 2.90%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.4735 0.90%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.2846 -0.48%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.1241 1.32%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.0476 -0.91%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.0437 0.52%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0172 -0.50%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.3243 -1.16%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0079 0.69%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0275 -0.27%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0329 -0.64%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.4141 -1.07%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.2679 -5.20%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0299 -0.54%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.0913 -0.83%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.1300 -1.88%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.0397 -0.48%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.0481 0.51%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0500 -0.13%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0245 -0.13%
Veteran 0.0056 0.0633 0.04%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0128 -0.32%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.1703 0.76%
Low Income -0.0518 0.6006 -3.11%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0098 0.03%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0736 2.78%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0162 -0.37%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.8567 9.69%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.1933 1.11%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.6438 1.34%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.0893 0.66%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.0000 0.00%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0010 -0.05%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.1276 -1.61%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0083 0.68%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0034 -0.18%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 0.0000 0.00%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 193.0000 0.15%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0082 -1.66%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0397 -1.86%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.1449 -24.73%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0139 -13.76%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0473 -29.67%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1517 -54.64%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2289 -45.65%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.1030 -29.38%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0323 9.84%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0400 4.92%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0406 1.67%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $8,571 for Michigan for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 38679) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-30108).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.4876 -$927
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.4748 $530
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.2846 -$36
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.1251 -$266
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.0467 -$116
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.0430 -$37
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0188 -$88
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.3163 -$486
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0086 -$28
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0269 -$95
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0333 -$124
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.4151 -$581
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.2653 -$505
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0311 $3
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.0902 $138
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.1310 $153
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0414 $89
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.0483 $82
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0473 $179
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0226 $6
Veteran 1445.8344 0.0634 $92
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0129 -$38
Single Parent -784.4348 0.1686 -$132
Low Income -538.7097 0.5924 -$319
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0091 $72
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0698 $126
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0145 $3
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.8765 $18
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 8146.9550 $747
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.1890 $255
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.6541 $45
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.0865 -$216
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.0000 $0
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0011 $7
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.1171 $55
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0059 -$12
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0027 -$11
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 0.0000 $0
Median Days in Program 2.2222 189.0000 $420
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0082 -$224
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0397 $1,457
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.1449 $6,838
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0139 -$3,619
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0473 $4,062
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1517 $14,413
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2289 $11,711
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.1030 $4,531
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0323 -$147
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0400 $892
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0406 -$235

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 39.0% for Michigan for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 6.894) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-6.504).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.4752 -7.17%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.5584 -3.66%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.2650 6.40%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.0730 3.34%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.0372 3.40%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.0504 -3.35%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0234 -1.25%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.3175 -10.46%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0328 8.69%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0307 0.15%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.3861 -7.42%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.2788 -6.65%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0299 -0.78%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.1102 2.89%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.1321 -1.48%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0416 -1.78%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.0387 -0.08%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.0788 -2.08%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0248 -3.59%
Veteran -0.9235 0.0577 -5.33%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0168 0.76%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.1956 7.22%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0693 3.25%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.8445 2.42%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.1679 6.52%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.1015 3.61%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0073 -0.32%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0066 -2.54%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 0.0000 0.00%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 249.0000 -8.00%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 160.5000 -4.39%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.1438 2.33%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0082 -6.65%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0397 17.69%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.1449 142.80%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0139 -81.62%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0473 57.68%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1517 243.52%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2289 163.94%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.1030 15.58%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0323 211.19%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0400 -11.40%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0406 -43.97%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 81.3% for Michigan for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.24) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.053).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.5504 3.27%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0424 0.52%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.2454 -3.52%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.3095 -6.36%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.2011 0.21%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.0703 -0.44%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0243 0.48%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.4279 -1.77%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0035 -0.19%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0309 -1.03%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0561 0.85%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.3457 2.39%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0402 -1.26%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0044 0.51%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0088 0.44%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.1950 5.36%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.3117 1.11%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.1530 -0.72%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0128 -0.18%
Low Income 0.0375 0.9151 3.43%
Homeless -0.2008 0.0508 -1.02%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.0672 0.43%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0393 -0.04%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.2056 -1.47%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.7206 2.52%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.0588 -0.51%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.0084 -0.04%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.3974 1.76%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.3064 -4.63%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0442 0.33%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0526 -0.18%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0203 0.07%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.2798 0.01%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.0000 0.00%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 330.0000 -1.32%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0082 -5.58%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0397 -7.47%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.1449 -19.71%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0139 -10.15%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0473 -10.10%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1517 -38.77%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2289 0.56%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.1030 -4.06%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0323 -34.90%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0400 13.21%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0406 -6.04%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $3,674 for Michigan for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 14446) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-10771).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.5511 -$1,034.60
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0359 -$3.32
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.2179 -$285.26
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.3160 -$337.04
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.2116 $137.46
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.0610 $116.79
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0205 $13.34
Race: Black -886.3703 0.4261 -$377.71
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0034 -$11.60
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0308 -$5.68
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0548 $51.10
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.3765 $521.05
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0485 -$40.16
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0046 $0.79
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0114 $76.12
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.2230 $136.90
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.2790 $152.36
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.1392 -$68.92
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0120 $29.43
Low Income -305.7985 0.9104 -$278.41
Homeless 983.9044 0.0491 $48.27
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.0702 -$90.14
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0359 $36.29
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.2048 $175.00
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.7148 -$202.62
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.0570 -$35.95
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.0091 -$4.22
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.3925 $63.26
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.2961 -$54.50
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0371 -$61.51
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0473 -$25.55
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0240 $2.50
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.2886 -$1.25
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.0000 $0.00
Median Days in Program 0.5942 324.5000 $192.82
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0082 -$26.09
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0397 $437.01
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.1449 $3,124.12
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0139 -$771.17
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0473 $2,118.76
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1517 $2,156.70
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2289 $4,662.19
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.1030 $730.31
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0323 $1,843.93
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0400 $1,744.66
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0406 -$409.86

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 24.0% for Michigan for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 4.962) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-4.721).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.5414 -14.94%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.1251 -10.14%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.3712 -33.50%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.2575 -18.02%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.1210 -19.85%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.0807 -0.14%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0117 -0.02%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.5303 0.22%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0235 -0.37%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0394 7.77%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.1915 -5.16%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0302 3.17%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0010 -0.06%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0048 0.91%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.6030 1.33%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.7406 14.63%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.0124 0.02%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.3430 -2.44%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.2763 7.57%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0730 4.04%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0159 -1.41%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.0000 0.00%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 403.0000 -13.15%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.0765 -2.63%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0082 6.27%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0397 38.06%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.1449 84.50%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0139 -59.53%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0473 -67.35%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1517 219.58%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2289 161.65%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.1030 64.90%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0323 164.38%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0400 -29.39%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0406 -4.74%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 74.3% for Michigan for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.278) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.535).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.4397 3.52%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4665 5.06%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.2115 -1.82%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.1007 -0.07%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.1006 -0.63%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.0875 2.03%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0233 -0.55%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.3250 -5.23%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0075 0.73%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.0352 -1.08%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0411 1.02%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.5065 -0.87%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.1710 0.66%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0111 -0.05%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0495 1.73%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.1017 -6.89%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0319 -1.68%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.1626 1.41%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0376 -0.34%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0346 -1.23%
Veteran 0.2170 0.0451 0.98%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0043 -0.01%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.0020 0.04%
Low Income 0.0926 0.0015 0.01%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0031 -0.02%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0008 0.01%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.8609 27.32%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0359 -0.55%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.2140 -0.82%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0121 -0.11%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0000 0.00%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0003 0.03%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0000 0.00%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 35.0000 -0.96%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0082 1.39%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0397 6.13%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.1449 14.67%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0139 -0.64%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0473 14.02%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1517 14.30%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2289 29.36%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.1030 6.10%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0323 12.62%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0400 6.81%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0406 1.40%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $6,488 for Michigan for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 41532) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-35044).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.4353 -$1,208
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.4781 $730
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.2145 $48
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.0981 $169
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.0858 $342
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.0803 $121
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0230 -$30
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.3253 -$952
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0076 -$19
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0326 -$181
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0401 $429
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.5206 -$918
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.1717 -$374
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0109 -$24
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0500 $105
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.0983 $7
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0293 -$147
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.1836 $84
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0374 -$43
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0245 -$125
Veteran -913.8967 0.0421 -$38
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0018 $3
Single Parent 660.1018 0.0020 $1
Low Income 634.4633 0.0014 $1
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0022 -$8
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0007 $1
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0001 -$1
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.9133 -$200
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 7087.4500 $1,851
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0337 $26
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.2274 $103
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0123 $3
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0000 $0
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0000 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0002 $2
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0000 $0
Median Days in Program 0.8717 36.0000 $31
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0082 $305
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0397 $1,700
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.1449 $6,912
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0139 $157
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0473 $2,961
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1517 $10,297
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2289 $11,784
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.1030 $4,432
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0323 $1,346
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0400 $2,056
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0406 -$207

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x